SOME BASICS TO BE UNDERSTOOD B4 V PROCEED !
Well lets first understand the Geography of Syria !!!
Syria is located in West Asia, in a rather
strategic location. It is surrounded by Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel
and Palestine.
Some politico - socio history of Syria
..before this unrest started of !!
·
Gained independence from
France in 1946
·
First merged with Egypt
to form the “United Arab Republic”, but separated in 1961 to form the Syrian Arab
Republic
·
Basher al Assad succeeded
his father as President in 2000.
·
Demographics: 76% Sunni (includes significant Kurd minority), 10% Alawi
and 10% Christian.
· The government and military are dominated by Alawi Muslims (a sect sometimes considered Shia), but the country is majority Sunni. This has led to communal tensions.
·
Syria has also become a
proxy battleground for the Shia-Sunni war, with the involvement of Saudi Arabia (which sees itself as the protector of Sunnis) and Iran
(Shia majority).
·
In terms of Palestine,
the Damascus-Tehran axis supports Hamas whereas Saudi has traditionally
supported Fatah Party of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
How the so called Civil war took fold !!
·
Pro-democracy protests
erupted in the Southern Province of Da’ra in March 2011 (influenced by the Arab
Spring wave).
·
Government responded with
a mix of concessions (like firing the Governor of Da’ra, appeasing the Sunnis
and other minorities etc.) and coercion.
·
After months of violent
crackdown, the protests evolved into a Civil War.
·
Arab League has imposed
economic sanctions and suspended Syria’s
membership.
·
UN, EU, GCC, OIC etc.
have all condemned the attacks.
What exactly are the Protestors demanding ?????
- Protestors
demand fall of the regime but
Assad has no intention to step down.
- Protestors
demand end to the 48-year-old emergency law.
Assad revoked the emergency but Syrian forces continued to open fire on
demonstrations and detain people without arrest warrant.
- Protestors
demand immediate end to extrajudicial killings and
torture.
Assad rejected these allegations by the UN that Syrian security forces
have committed crimes.
- Protestors
demand release of political prisoners and detained
protesters. Assad offered
amnesties to political prisoners but still there are many prisoners in
prisons.
- Protestors demand transition to a democratic, free and
pluralistic society. Assad
offered a new constitution (through a referendum) and elections but
The opposition has dismissed both the constitution and the elections
Who supports Assad ?
- Iran (Assad is a Shia ...nd Iran is Shia majority
nation)
- Hezbollah (itz a Shia terrorist org.. based in
Lebanon)
- Russia ( they hv a port in Syria , many Russians
reside der )
- China ( anti US policy , heavy investments)
Who are in particular against Assad ?
- Syrian citizens (mal administration , religious differences
)
- Saudi Arabia ( Sunni Majority )
- US (wanna create hegemony in the region , irritate and
iolate Iran )
What were the initiatives taken by
International Organisations to bring peace and stability to the region?
Nov 2011: Arab League Peace
Plan
·
Released 2,500 prisoners
·
However, the ceasefire
soon broke down and the observers returned in January 2012 due to dangerous
conditions.
Jan 2012: UN response
·
Security Council adopts a
resolution asking Assad to step down, vetoed by Russia and China.
·
The General Assembly
adopted a milder, non-binding resolution asking the Syrian government to
continue with political reforms and refrain from the use of lethal weapons.
·
Important to note that
India voted FOR the resolution (i.e., against Syria).
Feb 2012: Kofi Annan
Plan / Six-Point Peace Plan
·
Kofi Annan was appointed
the Special Envoy to Syria by UN and the Arab League (jointly).
·
He worked out a six-point plan, which involved:
1. Process led by Syrian parties
working with international envoy
2. End to violence by all sides;
army troops to stop using heavy weapons and withdraw to barracks
3. Parties to allow humanitarian
aid
4. Authorities to free detainees
5. Authorities to ensure freedom
of movement for journalists
6. Authorities to allow peaceful
demonstrations
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·
The UNSMIS (United
Nations Supervision Mission in Syria), led by Norwegian Major General Robert Mood, was appointed to supervise the ceasefire in Syria.
·
However, the mission was
suspended in June 2012 due to escalating violence.
·
Kofi Annan resigned in
August 2012, frustrated with the disaffection of all parties.
·
Lakhdar Brahimi has been appointed
to replace Annan as Special Envoy.
Feb 2012: Constitutional
amendments
The Bashar al Assad
regime proposed amendments to the constitution and kickstarted political
reforms to bring an end to the civil war. Some important amendments introduced
were:
·
Political pluralism by
bringing in a multi-party
system (the earlier constitution proclaimed Ba’ath party as the sole
leader of the state and society)
·
Presidential elections to
be held every 7 years
·
A limit of two seven-year terms for future
presidents
The amendments were
adopted by a public referendum. While Russia and China welcomed the reforms,
the Syrian National Congress (principal organ of opposition) had boycotted the
referendum.
November 2012: New Coalition
·
On 11/11/2012, a new
coalition of dissent groups was formed called the National Coalition
for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces
·
Mouaz al-Khatib, an activist and imam, will lead the coalition
·
France, Turkey, USA, Arab
League and GCC all announced some degree of recognition of this coalition as
the “legitimate representative of the Syrian people”.
·
The Coalition even appointed an
Ambassador to France.
·
Why form a new coalition?
To send out a message to the international community that the previously
divided rebel factions have all united. This will provide one point of contact
for foreign countries willing to provide financial/military assistance.
·
It is being said that a
surreptitious goal of the coalition is to disenfranchise the Syrian National Council (SNC) which had recently elected George Sabra (ex-Syrian Communist Party) and Mohamad Faruq
Tayfur (Muslim Brotherhood) as leaders.
============================================================
There are three fundamental questions that need to be
answered if one is to get to the bottom of the murky developments in
Syria:
a) What led to
the escalation of violence in Syria?
b) Who
constructs the narratives of conflict in the war zone? And,
c) Who
benefits from the violence?
- it is now quite clear that events in Syria are not as indigenous as
made out by the mainstream Western media.
- The rebel movement is a phenomenon that was nurtured and provided
momentum by organized external forces, including many Western governments
that, for many years, led a focused campaign to topple the Syrian
regime.
- And this is, apparently, all being done to undermine Iran, Syria’s
steadfast regional ally and an avowed adversary of the West.
- The conflict underway is not, quite, for the benefit of the people
of Syria, even though it is all meant to seem that way.
- In stark contrast to the narrative being propagated by the Western
media, there has been some willingness on the part of the regime to settle
for a peaceful solution.
- But a non-violent resolution based on consensus, and one which does
not result in Assad’s departure, is not the result that the West is
seeking.
- To achieve what’s being sought, it is important to make the world
believe that the regime is resorting to brutality and butchery, and that
without external intervention, there would be a massacre in rebel
strongholds.
- The truth, of course, is that “armed groups” are as engaged in the
violent killings in Syria as the ruling dispensation (as acknowledged by
Kofi Annan himself).
- But now that the regime appears fragile, the opposition is keen to
press home the advantage and go for the kill.
- So, regardless of the fact that the onus of ‘restraint’ lies with
the military—if only by virtue of it being the more organised force with
far greater lethal weaponry—the situation on the ground will not change
unless the rebel forces show an equal willingness to scale back violence.
Which is the UN Observor over there ?
·
UNSMIS : United Nations
Supervision Mission in Syria
UNSMIS was established in April 2012 to monitor a cessation of
armed violence in all its forms by all parties and to monitor and support the
full implementation of the Joint Special Envoy’s six-point plan to end the
conflict in Syria.
What if President Assad steps
down ?
Even
if President Assad were to step down, the Alawite military machine and its
sectarian allies would most likely fight on, holding large parts of territory,
leading to a low-level, protracted civil war.
The
end-game has begun, but the end is nowhere in sight.
What is India's stand on Syria ?
India-Syria
Background
·
We support Syria’s demand
that Israel return a disputed territory called “Golan Heights”
·
Syria is also a member of
NAM.
Current stand !!!!
·
From the beginning of the
crisis, we have called for cessation of
violence in all its forms and by all sides. By principle, India has always had a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of a
country.
·
We voted in favour of the
resolution in the UN General Assembly that authorized the appointment of an
Envoy to engage with the Syrian parties and foreign actors for the resolution
of the crisis.
·
We also supported resolutions 2042 and 2043 in expectation that the
establishment of the United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) will
be able to oversee the implementation of Mr Annan’s six-point plan
Somethings India
must take care of !!
India has to balance:
1.
Economic interests: Both
Iran and Saudi Arabia are crucial for our energy security, and they are on opposite sides on
this issue.
2.
Regional interests: Iran
is emerging as a strong partner for us in the region. We are investing up to $100mn in Iran’s Chabahar port,
and Iran is our gateway to Afghanistan.
3.
Internal security
interests: We need to maintain harmony among the millions of Shias and Sunnis
living in India, and protect our country from proxy ideological warfare.
4.
Article 51 of the Constitution
calls on the state to promote world peace
Conclusion !!!!
The only way to achieve a peaceful
transition to democracy in Syria is through the regime. Destroying the state
will lead to a power vacuum and chaos.
============================================================
Additional Reading !!!
- India
announced an assistance of 2.5 million US dollars to Syria on 30
Jan 2013..
What was the Houla
Massacre ?
- it
is a region in Syria, where 100+ civilians were killed in May 2012.
- Syrian
government alleged that Al-Qaeda terrorist groups were responsible for the
killings
- while
Houla residents and opposition groups allege Syrian military’s hand behind
the incident.
Why Russia in particular supports Syria ?
- Syria
buys arms and ammunition worth 700$ million per year from Russia.
- In
Syria’s Port city of
Tartus, Russia has its only military base in Mediterranean Sea.
- There
are an estimated 30,000
Russian citizens living in Syria, most women and children. The
Russian population in Syria is the result of an experiment begun in 1963,
when the socialist Baath Party came to power.
- The
Soviets provided education to top students from Asia, Africa and Latin
America, throwing them together with Soviet classmates in work brigades
and “evenings of friendship.”
- Syrian
men felt genuinely transformed by their time in Russia; they also sought
to avoid paying a bride-price as is customary in the Middle East and hence
married to women of USSR.
- Russian
consular official said about 9,000 Russians have officially registered
with the embassy, though upward of 30,000 citizens are believed to be in
Syria.
- If
Russia started actively supporting USA and world community against Syria,
then President Assad and his goons might start killing innocent Russian
and in such scenario, Russia
doesn’t have evacuation plans for its ‘diospora‘. Besides
Such an evacuation operation would be daunting because a vast number of
the expatriate wives come from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova and after 50
years of intermarriage, the line between who is Russian and who is not may
be difficult to find.
