After three rounds of talks in less than two
months, Iran and six world powers have reached a preliminary agreement in
Geneva on curbing Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange
for some sanctions relief. The
breakthrough came amid a history of failed negotiations, and could be the first
step towards a detente between Western powers and Iran after
35 years of hostility. Noticeably, the agreement came less than three
months after Iran’s new President Hassan Rouhani committed to changing
Iran’s relationship with the world.
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The deal will have immediate regional and international
ramifications, and once
a long term deal is reached, possibly within a few months, rapprochement
between Washington and Tehran is likely to pave the way towards major realignment in the greater Middle East
region.
It’s also expected to open the way towards the recognition of Iran’s regional role starting
with Syria, Iraq, the Gulf region, and eventually in Afghanistan.
As the US downsizes its
overall military presence, it expects the Iranian leadership to be less of a nuisance
and more cooperative towards crisis management in the greater Middle
East.
And it seems, many in
Tehran, and among its supporters, are pleased to see Iran replace Saudi Arabia
or Israel as a reliable intermediary for the United States in the region.
Some argue that this is
all wishful thinking and will prove short-lived considering the
decades’ long antagonism and ideological differences. Others argue that in the
long term, Iran (and Turkey) could prove more useful as US clients/partners than
Israel and Saudi Arabia, considering their regional weight and historic
importance.
The new deal will have
serious ramifications on at least seven regional fronts:
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Iran
The Islamic Republic is at
the heart of any future regional shifts of power. US failures in
Afghanistan, and more importantly in Iraq and Syria, have already strengthened
Iran’s hand. And the newly gained confidence in Tehran will be
further enhanced by the removal of economic sanctions, and buttressed
by a bigger role in a weakened region.
Question: How will Iran’s
rehabilitation and opening to the West affect the balance of
power within the country and the future of the mullahs’ rule?
Syria
Iran’s expected participation in the Geneva-2
negotiation over Syria’s future is its first reward for “good behaviour”. A
staunch supporter of Bashar al-Assad, with its special forces fighting
alongside his regime, Tehran is likely to ensure Assad’s survival, and along
with Russia, assist in his rehabilitation as an acceptable regional leader.
Tehran and Moscow are eager to end the war and shift the emphasis from ousting
Assad to “fighting terrorism” in Syria.
· Question: What does a greater Iranian role in Syria mean to the
struggle of Syrians for freedom from dictatorship, and the outcome of the
horrific civil war there?
Iraq
The country is in a
quagmire 10 years after the military invasion. It’s terribly polarised between
Sunni and Shia forces and hundreds – even thousands – of people are killed
every month by suicide bombings. Tehran exercises major influence in the
country, over Nouri al-Maliki’s government, and among the Shia
majority. And as of late, the authoritarian Maliki has emerged
as an indispensable link between Tehran and Washington as he spearheads the
fight against “extremist Sunni groups”.
· Question: Considering its new vigour, will Iran’s support
for Maliki lead him to an even greater monopoly of power and deeper
divisions in the country?
Saudi Arabia
The wars in Iraq, Syria and
the conflict in Lebanon – in addition to the upheaval of the predominantly Shia
majority in Bahrain – have deepened the rift between Riyadh and Tehran. Judging
from criticism made recently by Saudi intelligence chief Bandar bin Sultan, who
is Washington’s ally in the Kingdom, the Saudi leadership is the most alarmed
with the potential US-Iran detente and the rise of an unrestrained Iran on the
Middle East stage. Further, Saudi-Iranian antagonism will lead to major
sectarian escalation with incalculable price for the region.
· Question: Will the hardening theological triangle - Saudi,
Iran and Israel – take the region to new historic lows as the danger of
sectarian conflict looms large in the region?
Afghanistan
As the US withdraws/redeploys outside the country
in 2014 – after a 13 year war – leaving behind only residual forces through
2024, Washington can use all the help it can get to maintain control. With
a certain influence over Afghanistan’s northern regions, Tehran could be of
assistance if it chooses to help stabilise Afghanistan and deter the return of
the Taliban.
· Question: Having briefly helped US forces fight against the
Taliban after 2001, will Tehran cooperate once again with the US?
Palestine/Lebanon
Palestine is a
domestic redline for both Washington and Tehran and, therefore, expect little
or no change to the occupation of Palestine where they’ve agreed to
disagree. Tehran has already lost much influence among the Islamist Palestinian
factions due to its support of the Assad regime; its only influence remains
with Hezbollah.
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Question: Will Iran’s
Lebanese ally emerge stronger or weaker from the Syrian civil war, and will it
become a Lebanese, and not an Israeli menace?
Israel
For the foreseeable future,
Israel will continue to be the only nuclear power in the region. But
Israel is no less annoyed by a resurgent Iran than it is by its
nuclear development, especially the fact that Tehran has already acquired the
nuclear know-how. Some suggest that this could lead to new unspoken Israeli
alliance with the so-called moderate Sunni regimes, ie, Saudi Arabia,
UAE, Jordan, Egypt, against their common nemesis, Iran.
· Question: Since Israel is particularly eager for such an
arrangement, will such alliances finally see the light of day and
what repercussion will that have on the region?
India has welcomed the deal that Iran and six world powers clinched on Sunday curbing the Iranian nuclear programme in exchange
for initial sanctions relief.
“As the agreement between Iran and the P5 plus 1 has been agreed
to just a while ago we are in the process of obtaining details from our
interlocutors, however, based on initial information available at this stage I
can say that India welcomes the prospect of resolving questions related to
Iran’s nuclear program,through dialogue and diplomacy,” India’s ministry of
external affairs spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin told
