Pehle INDIA aur IRAN k beech ka Rishta Samaj le
- Delhi's
relations with Tehran are multi-faceted and complex.
The two countries share centuries-old cultural and linguistic links. In
modern times, the relationship is more economic and strategic.
- Tehran
was the second biggest supplier
of crude oil to India until 2011-12.
Iran is also strategically located in the Gulf, and it offers an
alternative trade route to Afghanistan and to Central Asia.
- India is home to the world's second highest Shia
population, next only to Iran. Iran's
influence over an estimated 45 million Shias in India is regarded as
significant. With Iran emerging after international sanctions, it offers
great investment opportunities to Indian companies.
- But the
bilateral ties suffered setbacks following international sanctions on
Tehran over its nuclear programme. As successive Indian governments moved
closer to the US, their Iran policy took a back seat, much to the
displeasure of the Iranians.
- Iranians
were dismayed when India voted against their country at a vote in the
International Atomic Energy Agency in 2009. Then India significantly reduced oil imports from Tehran
following US pressure.
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According foreign policy analysts, PM
Modi’s focus will be on the following issues;
Chabahar Port:
- This is one of
the most crucial deals between India and Iran which has been pending for
years, mainly due to the sanctions imposed on Iran and India’s lack of
diplomatic courage.
- Now that the
world powers have lifted the sanctions, the deal is back on the
table.
- Chabahar port is
where India wants two berthing docks, which will make trade with Iran
easier and also give India access to Central Asia.
- It will also
help India compete with Pakistan’s Gwadar port, which is fully operated by
China.
- Earlier this
month, India announced its commitment to develop the port, promising an
investment of $ 20 billion to make Chabahar a deep sea port.
Farzad B gas project:
- The Farzad B
block gas field was discovered by Indian explorers in 2012 and therefore,
India was awarded the development of the gas field.
- India even
promised to invest $1 billion in the project, but it was later stalled due
to the US-pressure on New Delhi in view of the sanctions.
- This deal will
is now expected to be signed by October and establish
the ‘development, financial and commercial’ terms.
India-Iran sub-sea gas pipeline:
- New Delhi is
also going to push for a sub-sea gas pipeline between India and Iran, via
Oman.
- The pipeline
will connect the Chabahar port to Oman which will then connect to
India.
- This is a huge
project, which analysts believe, might prove to be very expensive, but
will also pay major dividends, “if the right economic and political
regulations and mechanisms are in place.”
Building on the cordial ties:
- The two
countries have shared cordial ties throughout the sanctions-era, barring a
few exceptions.
- India can
rectify its previous failure to show spine and build on the shared
historical and cultural ties between the two countries. India is major
importer of oil and natural gas.
- A partnership
stands to benefit both the Asian countries.
- India is also an
important stakeholder in peace and prosperity in the West Asian region,
given the fact that more than 7 million Indian work in the Middle
East.
- Therefore, the
issue to region peace and security is just as important as the economic
benefits that the two countries hope to reap through this visit.
Payment issue !
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Ok CHABAHAR port....many know it
...still for newbies !
- India, Iran and Afghanistan are set to sign an agreement on
developing Chabahar port and establishing a transit-transport corridor.
- The establishment of a transit-transport corridor with Chabahar
port in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province at its heart will allow
Afghanistan to bypass Pakistan for trade with India.
- It will also allow India and Afghanistan to access new markets in
the Central Asian republics.
- The Indian
company will undertake the development of two jetties in Chabahar port for
a period of 10 years and will transfer all cargo consignments except for
oil products.
- From
Chahbahar port, the existing Iranian road network can link up to Zaranj in
Afghanistan, about 883 km from the port. The Zaranj-Delaram road
constructed by India in 2009 can give access to Afghanistan's garland
highway, thereby establishing road access to four major cities --
Afghanistan--Herat, Kandahar, Kabul and Mazar-e-sharif.
Issues involved
as far as moving forward with the CHABAHAR port is concerned ?
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- First, it is in competition with the bigger and richer Bandar Abbas. It is closer by geographic proximity to
Afghanistan for India’s dream access to West Afghanistan and to Central
Asia. However, the port
is virtually undeveloped and needs a huge investment besides the fact that
it has virtually no connectivity to the overland areas of India’s
interest. For all its
strategic importance, it will require a huge investment by India but money, for
the moment, seems to have dried up, both in the private and public sector.
- Iran itself does not have the immediate
interest or the money to feel excited by any development prospects. It is learned that China is also playing spoil
sport just
as it is on a host of other issues such as India’s entry into the Nuclear
Supplier’s Group. Iran will not be easy to negotiate with and it will
extract its advantage from any such deal. The presence of Afghanistan as a
part of this upcoming deal will throw up greater interest in international
circles. It will be an initiative in favor of the Afghan Government and
its quest for improvement of its economy and overall stability.
- PM Modi’s inking of a deal on Chabahar will
of course be a huge positive but the implementation is not going to be
easy. Financially,
the project which could be a game changer, requires a Public Private
Partnership (PPP) and more consortiums to develop the infrastructure
inland.
- Iran may not be in a position to financially invest in
this, notwithstanding the $100 billion which was frozen in the US
banks and
will be released in due course. Its other two ports Bandar
Abbas and Bandar Khomeini are
apparently sufficient for its current needs. Chabahar has some other constraints such as the
ongoing low level insurgency initiated by the Baluchs who also inhabit the
Sistan Baluchistan region of Iran. The Iranian Republican Guard has been
deployed there for long.
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Ok how
can we exploit our CULTURAL TIES with IRAN ? ...u knw SOFT DIPLOMACY !!!
- If there is anything in which a strong bond is evident
it is the enduring Shia Islamic culture and faith in India.
- India’s Shias subscribe both to the Qum and Najaf
schools of Islamic learning, the latter being in Iraq and the former in
Iran.
- There is a great sense of pride in the Shia culture of
Awadh with which Iran has historic ties.
- Hopefully, the PM’s delegation will factor this and have
in it a representative of the Awadh Shias who epitomize like Iran a far greater level of
tolerance in today’s radical Islamic world.
- Prime
Minister Modi will attend the inaugural session of the conference on May 23
which would be followed by a sitar concert. He will also release a
manuscript called 'Kalileh
wa Dimneh' - an old
translation into Persian of Panchatantra and Jataka.The manuscript is
perhaps the only ever-lasting and perpetual bridge which first connected
Indo-Iranian community.
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How is
Modi bhai's kutniti different from that of Nawaz chacha and Xi Jingping mamu ?
- Indian diplomacy revels in being friends
with everybody.
- Contrary to the actions of the Chinese
president, Xi Jinping, and the Pakistani prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, both
of whom chose to visit Saudi Arabia and Iran on one trip, Modi has
carefully elected to pay separate visits to both countries.
- It is possibly due to differing agendas,
but more probably to emphasize that one relationship cannot—and should
not—be impacted by the other.
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Do you know the SADAT Moment ?
The ‘Sadat Moment’ alludes to the sudden change
of heart that President Anwar Sadat had in 1978 which led to the Camp David
peace process and ultimate rapprochement between Egypt and Israel; it altered
equations for the better in the Middle East.
Can
Modi provide the 'SADAT Moment' for Iran and Israel ?
No doubt India needs Israel !! --
- India definitely needs Israel for the unencumbered and
limitation free supply of crucial military hardware and technology for its
military modernization program and other advancements.
On the other hand it just cannot IRAN too ..given it's strategic
interests involved in West Afghanistan and entry in Central Asia !
If India can promote a ‘Sadat Moment’ for Iran
and Israel it can change the dynamics of the Middle East which will also help
in the defeat of the Islamic State (Daesh).
For this Modiji will have to move an EXTRA MILE
thinking beyond 'national interest' to act as a MEDIATOR. No doubt the
relationship between Iran and Israel is dangerous but no effort at mediation
has ever been made.
Modi's personal equations with Israeli
counterpart Benjamin
Netanyahu chacha are PERFECT ...he can leverage this best to calm down
temperatures on the issue of PALESTINE ..which is root cause of TERRORISM
around the world ..and can provide a long lasting stability to the WEST ASIA region. He can atleast urge Netanyahu to resume the peace process when he
visits Israel later.
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Is this all friends strategy right for
India as far as West Asia is concerned ?
- It is true that countries with a more
proactive foreign policy in West Asia (the United States, Russia or
France) cannot claim to have achieved much success so far.
- However, if friendship with all is
obviously better than an absence of friendship or enmity, it is clearly
not enough as it has hardly yielded any influence in the
region.
- For India to be relevant and, above all,
not be taken for granted by its many “friends”, it needs to be more than a
friend for the countries in West Asia.
- It needs to become a partner of interest,
with a unique selling point.
- For instance, it must present its
partners a huge market, qualified expertise in many fields – chiefly high
technology and a joint fight against terrorism.
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Why is this visit important and not
just a part of world tour as stupid people criticise ?
- Mr. Modi’s visit assumes greater significance in the
larger context of his own policy of enhanced engagement with West
Asia.
- The Iran visit comes after his trips to the United
Arab Emirates and Saudi
Arabia and ahead of visits to Qatar and
Israel.
- The government appears to be trying to reach out to the
three poles of the region.
- While it will pursue good ties with the Sunni Gulf for
energy supplies, Iran would act as a gateway to Central Asia besides
enhancing India’s energy security.
- Israel remains one of India’s top defence and technology
suppliers.
- The success of this policy depends on New Delhi’s
capacity to do the balancing act.
- The Iran visit is an opportunity to restore equilibrium
in India’s foreign policy, which, of late, was seen to be skewed towards
Israel and Saudi Arabia.
